State Government Employee Fallout

Total State Government Employees in the United States typically followed an annual pattern with dual dips. One dip for teacher retirements/resignations/layoffs at the end of the school year and another for other state workers at the end of the fiscal year. A slow upward trending growth was the pattern that the sine wave of hiring/firing was superimposed on top of.


The downward shift of the pandemic is clear during the summer of 2020. The overall rehiring by October 2020 was 200K-300K below the level where the typical pattern would have repeated.



The drop in the summer of 2020 can be observed in many of the top state level employee counts over the last 5 years.



The most unusual pattern was observed in Oregon which saw a 20K-25K drop in state employees since 2015.



Paul Mangione

Fort Schuyler Advisors

www.ftschuyer.com

@paul__mangione


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